forex®
Australian FOREX Weekly Outlook 15/09/2008
Lehman Brothers Rock Markets. Oil below $100
15/09/08
The forex trading week preview
In the States the FOMC meeting is the highlight with markets mostly expecting a hold at 2.00%. On Monday we have the August Industrial Production expected at -0.3 and the September Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 1.5 down slightly from 2.8. On Tuesday with have August CPI is expected at 2.6% Y/Y up slightly from 2.5% in July. Also the FOMC decision is expected to remain at 2.00% with a chance of a .25% cut given ongoing Stock weakness. On Wednesday we have the August Housing Starts seen at 950K. On Thursday we have Weekly Jobless Claims seen at 440K. Also we have Philly Fed seen at -10 in September slightly better than -12.7. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In the Eurozone Tuesday is the highlight with Final AUG CPI expected seen falling to 3.8% from 4.0% in July. Also on Tuesday we have September Zew Economic Sentiment survey seen slightly better at -53 vs. -55 previously. On Friday we have Aug PPI expected to fall -0.5%. In the UK On Tuesday we have the August CPI expected to rise to 4.6% Y/Y from 4.4% previously. A BoE inflation letter is expected as the inflation rate is expected to remain above the target rate. On Wednesday we have the MPC meeting minutes and the Claimant Count Change expected at 22.5K. Finally on Thursday we have August Retail Sales expected at -0.4%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Japan Light data week with Wednesday’s BOJ interest rate announcement widely expected to remain at 0.5% and be accompanied by a press conference. On Thursday have the Tertiary Industry Index for July seen at 0.40%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
In Australia light data week with Tuesday’s RBA minutes the highlight. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4200 |
1.4310 |
1.4410 |
1.4535 |
1.4599 |
|
USD/JPY |
106.75 |
107.70 |
108.45 |
109.05 |
109.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.7540 |
1.7745 |
1.7905 |
1.7930 |
1.8005 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8030 |
0.8160 |
0.8315 |
0.8340 |
0.8400 |
|
XAU/USD |
783.35 |
789.74 |
815.00 |
819.65 |
836.50 |
· Euro – 1.4410
Initial support at 1.4200 (Sep 5 low) followed by 1.4310 (Sept 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4535 (10 Day SMA) at followed by 1.4599 (Sept 2 high).
· Yen – 108.45
Initial support is located at 107.70 (Sep 8 hourly low) followed by 106.75 (Cloud Top). Initial resistance is now at 109.05 (Sep 8 hourly high) followed by 109.55 (Sep 3 high).
· Pound – 1.7905
Initial support at 1.7745 (Sept 5 high) followed by 1.7540 (Sept 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.7930 (Sep 8 hourly high) followed by 1.8005 (10 day SMA).
· Australian Dollar – 0.8315
Initial support at 0.8160 (Sept 8 hourly low) followed by 0.8030 (Sep 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8340 (Sept 8 hourly High) followed by 0.8400 (Sept 3 high).
· Gold – 815
Initial support at 789.74 (Sept 3 low) followed by 783.35 (Aug 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 819.65 (Sep 5 high) followed by 836.5 (Sep 1 high).
