Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 23/05/2008

Dollar rebounds on stronger Unemployment Claims, profit taking in Oil

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd MAY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·                U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was given some relief yesterday after Initial Jobless Claims came in 9K lower then expected at 365K. US home prices fell 0.4 pct in March, after gaining 0.6 pct in February. Home prices have now fallen 3.7 pct since their peak in April 2007. The U.S share markets had some small gains with NASDAQ up 16.31 points (.67%) and DOW JONES up 24.43 points (.19%). Crude oil came off almost $5 from its record highs yesterday of $135.04 per barrel due to some profit taking, closing the New York session at $130.60. Looking ahead, today we have existing Home Sales which is expected to come in at 4.86 Million.

·                  The Euro (EURO) gave back some of the gains made this weak on the back of weaker then expected Industrial New Orders coming in at -1.0% vs. -0.4% expectations.  The EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5693 and a high of 1.5814 before closing the day at 1.5710 in the New York session.  Looking ahead, manufacturing and services PMI are made public, and is expected to give the market a clearer picture of current economic conditions in the Euro-zone.

·                The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovered from Asian lows on the back of an equities recovery, stronger US data and gain in US bond yields.  The USDJPY traded with a low of 102.73 and a high of 104.38 before closing the day around 104.30 in the New York session.  Looking ahead, no data out of Japan to end the week.

·                The Sterling (GBP) rallied after stronger then expected retail sales with actual -0.2% vs. predictions -0.5%. The cable was tempered by stronger US data but made strong gains against the EURO and JPY. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9687 and a high of 1.9848 before closing the day at 1.9810 in the New York session. Looking ahead, revised GDP is out today with the markets looking for 0.4%.

·                The Australian Dollar (AUD) was fell from 24 year record highs on the back of weaker commodities and heavy AUS/NZD sales after yesterdays NZD budget. AUS/JPY benefited from the USD/JPY rally closing New York at 99.50.  Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9547 and a high of 0.9651 before closing the day at 0.9557 in the New York session. Looking ahead, no data out today.

·              Gold (XAU)    pulled back in line with falling oil on profit taking and dollar strength. Overall trading with a low of 917.9 and high of 935.30 ending the New York session at $920.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY