Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 13/09/2007

Euro and oil reach an all time on high. Further confidence in Fed cut

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –  13 SEPTEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased further against a basket of currencies as bets increased surrounding expectations that the target interest rate will be cut next week. The USD declined for a sixth consecutive day as speculators remain confident that the key borrowing rate will be reduced by half a per cent on the 18^th of September. Such is the confidence in the market that the Fed will act on recent market turmoil the only thing that remains in question amongst investors is whether it would be by 25 or 50 basis points. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down -5.40 points (-0.32%) whilst the Dow Jones was also down -16.74 (-0.13%). Crude oil traded at a record high of $80.18 a barrel before closing at US$79.91.  

• The Euro (EUR) traded at record highs on Tuesday of 1.3915 following a broadly weaker USD and market perceptions of a Fed rate cut. In data news, industrial production was released better than expected, giving further support to the Euro. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.3825 and a high of 1.3915 before closing the day at 1.3909 in the New York session.  

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) trimmed its losses earlier on following the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Unlike the Yen, trade was limited to a tight range of 60 pips, reaching a low of 113.78 and a high of 114.40 before closing the day at 114.23 in the New York session.  
• The Sterling (GBP) eased to a three week low on views that UK interest rates had peaked in tight lending conditions. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a range of a low 2.0289 and a high of 2.0366 before closing the day at 2.0303 in the New York session.

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) rose sharply breaking key levels in overnight trading. Overall the AUDUASD traded with a range of a low 0.8316 and a high of 0.8430 before closing the day at 0.8422 in the New York session.

• Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in five sessions on speculation a rally to the highest price since May 2006 may be overdone. XAU trade with a low of 705.90 and a high of 714.00.     

• Euro 1.3895

Initial support at 1.3825 (Sep 12 low) followed by 1.3765 (Sep 10 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3916 (Sep 12 trend high) followed by 1.3924 (Sep open + (Aug range *0.618).

• Yen 114.30

Initial support is located at 112.61 (Sep 10 low) followed by 111.61 (Aug 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 114.38 (Sep 11 high) followed by 115.66 (Sep 7 high).

• Pound – 2.0270

Initial support at 2.0235 (Sep 11 low) followed by 2.0039 (Sep 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0400 (Aug 8 reaction high) followed by 2.0419 (76.4% retracement of 2.0656 – 1.9652)

• Australian Dollar – 0.8390

Initial support a 0.8238 (Sep 11 low) followed by 0.8156 (Sep 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8438 (Sep 12 high) followed by 0.8460 (0.8051 plus 0.618 of 0.7674 – 0.8336).

• Gold – 711.20

Initial support at 702.75 (Sep 11 low) followed by 699.50 (Sep 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 714.25 (Sep 11 high) followed by 720.10 (May 15 high)