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Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 14/06/2006



MARKET SUMMARY –  14JUNE06 (05:00GMT)
                                                                     

 

  • The Dollar continued its strength against the major currencies as core PPI rose higher than expected and retail sales came in on target. Core PPI rose 0.3% in May whereas markets expected a rise of only 0.2%. Headline PPI however rose 0.2% compared to 0.5% forecasted. Retail sales increased in line with expectations, lifting by 0.1%. In other markets, US stocks fell again as higher than expected core PPI numbers lead to interest rate fears inducing a sell-off of interest rate sensitive stocks. The Dow Jones was down 86pts, and the NASDAQ retreated 19pts. Crude oil finished lower by US$1.80 to US$68.56 a barrel. Looking ahead, US CPI numbers are out today with the market expecting 0.4% and 0.2% for the headline and core components respectively.
  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2531 to 1.2615, before closing at 1.2533 in the New York session.
  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 114.26 to 115.44 versus the dollar, before closing at 115.44 in the New York session.
  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8326 to 1.8459, before closing at 1.8343 in the New York session. On the data front, the UK CPI rose 0.5% in May, more than the 0.4% rise that was expected. Looking ahead, unemployment figures are due out today and retail sales numbers are due out tomorrow.
  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7372 to 0.7419, before closing at 0.7372 in the New York session. On the data front, the Westpac consumer confidence fell to 103.8.
  • Gold plummeted by US$44.50 to US$566.80 an ounce, its biggest fall in 15 years as investors exited commodity markets amid fears of an economic slowdown. Copper closed 25% down on its high from this year, silver tumbled more than 13%, and palladium fell by 12%.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

 

                     

                     

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2403 1.2530 1.2550 1.2653 1.2686
USD/JPY 113.56 114.25 115.10 115.45 115.98
GBP/USD 1.8206 1.8326 1.8350 1.8486 1.8579
AUD/USD 0.7357 0.7366 0.7385 0.7505 0.7547

                     

 

  • Euro 1.2550

Initial support at 1.2530 (Jun 13 low) followed by 1.2403 (50% retracement of the 1.1951-1.2980 rally). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2653 (Jun 12 high) followed by 1.2686 (June 9 high).

 

  • Yen 115.10

Initial support is located at 114.25 (June 13 low) followed by 113.56 (June 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 115.45 (Jun13 high) followed by 115.98 (April 24 high and former gap low).

 

  • Pound – 1.8350

Initial support at 1.8326 (Jun 13 low) followed by 1.8206 (May 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8486 (June 9 high) followed by 1.8579 (June 8 high).

 

  • Aussie – 0.7385

Initial support at 0.7366 (Jun13 low) followed by 0.7357 (April 20 low 61.8% retracement of 0.7015-0.7795 rise). Initial resistance is now at 0.7505 (June 9 corrective high) followed by 0.7547 (June 5 corrective high).



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