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Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/01/2010
Dollar Stabilizes ahead of Key Jobs Data
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th January (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) found strength as traders took profit on the recent commodity rally and US data showed continued jobs improvement. Weekly Jobless Claims at 434k vs. 447k previously. DJIA +33 points closing at 10606, S& P +4 points closing at 1141 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2300. Looking ahead, December Non Farm Payrolls forecast at 0k vs. -11k previously. The December Unemployment Rate is forecast at 10.1% vs. 10.0% previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell back to the lower 1.43's after the dollar gained strength overnight but was well supported against the Yen and Pound. Hurting Sentiment was the surprise drop in German Retail Sales -1.1% vs. 0.4% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4298 and a high of 1.4449 before closing at 1.4320. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.2%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the major mover as the new Minister of Finance Kan stated he was hoping for more Yen weakness and that Y95 was the level that companies wanted. AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY soared to fresh 2010 highs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.09 and a high of 93.79 before closing the day around 93.60 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) remained under pressure even after the BoE held rates at 0.5% and kept the Asset purchase program at 200bn. GBP/JPY reclaimed Y149 but is under performing the rest of the market. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5895 and a high of 1.6062 before closing the day at 1.5940 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December PPI Output forecast at 0.2%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) made some fresh 2010 high above 0.9250 on solid economic data before profit taking set in ahead of the US jobs data. November Trade Balance was -1700mln vs. -1800mln forecast. November Retail Sales 1.4% vs. 0.4% forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9159 and a high of 0.9269 before closing the US session at 0.9170.
Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back due to profit taking in quiet trading. Overall trading with a low of USD$1127 and high of USD$1139 before ending the New York session at USD$1131 an ounce. Eased back with general USD strength. Crude Oil was down $0.52 ending the New York session at $82.40.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4258 |
1.4284 |
1.4320 |
1.4484 |
1.4536 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.26 |
91.52 |
93.45 |
93.70 |
95.00 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5708 |
1.5833 |
1.5935 |
1.6064 |
1.6154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8939 |
0.9093 |
0.9175 |
0.9323 |
0.9406 |
|
XAU/USD |
1093.00 |
1115 |
1128.00 |
1140 |
1141.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
80.00 |
82.00 |
82.60 |
84.00 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.4320
Initial support at 1.4284 (Jan 6 low) followed by 1.4258 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4484 (Jan 5 high) followed by 1.4536 (Dec 17 low)
Yen – 93.45
Initial support is located at 91.52 (Jan 6 low) followed by 91.26 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.70 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 95.00 (Major Level).
Pound – 1.5935
Initial support at 1.5833 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.5708 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6064 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1.6154 (Jan 5 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9175
Initial support at 0.9093 (Jan 5 low) followed by the 0.8939 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9323 (Dec 3 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 6 high).
Gold – 1128
Initial support at 1115 (Jan 5 low) followed by 1093 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1140 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1141 (Dec 17 high).
Oil – 82.60
Initial support at 82 (Major level) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 84.00 (Big Figure) followed by 85 (Major level).
