forex®
Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 24/12/2009
New Home Sales Slump
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th December (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) November Home Sales slumped to 355k vs. 442k forecast and invited traders to rethink the recent Dollar rally and the timing of US interest rate hikes. This combined with a significant rally in Oil to push most pairs higher against the Greenback. DJIA +2 points closing at 10466, S& P +2 points closing at 1120 and NASDAQ +16 points closing at 2269. Looking ahead, Weekly jobless claims are forecast at 470k vs.480k previously. Also Released, November Durable Goods forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.6% previously.
The Euro (EUR) rallied above 1.4300 on dollar weakness more than Euro strength. The pair will need to reclaim the 1.4500 level before downside pressure is relieved. Underpinning the move was a push higher in the in the EUR/JPY above Y131. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4232 and a high of 1.4368 before closing at 1.4330.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY rally finally ground to a halt but the pull back was shallow as Yen crosses then took up the slack. Key Resistance is seen at Y92. AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY edged higher for most of the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.30 and a high of 91.89 before closing the day around 91.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ minutes released.
The Sterling (GBP) failed to capitalize on USD weakness as the market is still cautious but the downside was also limited. The pair spent the whole day inside the 1.5920-1.6000 range. EUR/GBP rallied towards the key 0.9000 level. The BoE minutes added little to what was a quiet day of trading. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5922 and a high of 1.5997 before closing the day at 1.5960 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied off multi month lows at 0.8740 to regain the 0.8800 handle. Commodities rallied across the board and risk appetite remained strong. AUD/NZD jumped back above 1.2500 as New Zealand Q3 GDP came in worse than forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.4% expected. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8733 and a high of 0.8821 before closing the US session at 0.8800.
Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced but failed to break above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1079 and high of USD$1096 before ending the New York session at USD$1094 an ounce. Rallied on bullish Weekly Crude Inventories. Crude Oil was up +$2.27 ending the New York session at $76.67.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4178 |
1.4218 |
1.4335 |
1.4366 |
1.4373 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.16 |
91.00 |
91.70 |
91.87 |
92.32 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5903 |
1.5922 |
1.5965 |
1.6100 |
1.6165 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8570 |
0.8647 |
0.8800 |
0.8834 |
0.8925 |
|
XAU/USD |
1055.00 |
1074 |
1092.00 |
1119 |
1141.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
74.50 |
75.00 |
76.80 |
77.00 |
78.00 |
Euro – 1.4335
Initial support at 1.4218 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4366 (Dec 23 high) followed by 1.4373 (Dec 21 high)
Yen – 91.70
Initial support is located at 91.00 (Dec 22 low) followed by 90.16 (Dec 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.87 (Dec 22 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 High).
Pound – 1.5965
Initial support at 1.5922 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6100 (Dec 22 high) followed by 1.6165 (Dec 21 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8800
Initial support at 0.8647 (Dec 22 low) followed by the 0.8570 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8834 (Dec 22 high) followed by 0.8925 (Dec 21 high).
Gold – 1092
Initial support at 1074 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1119 (Dec 21 high) followed by 1141 (Dec 17 high) .
Oil – 76.80
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday support) followed by 74.50 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 77.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 78.00 (Intraday resistance).
