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Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 28/09/2009
US stocks fall for a third day
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 28th September (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) failed to gain from the fall in stocks although any weakness in Majors was mild except for the USD/JPY. Oil was also able to bounce after heavy losses during the week as concerns over Iran's second nuclear reactor sparked fresh geopolitical concern. August Durable Goods fell -2.4% vs. 0.9% forecast. Crude Oil was up $0.12 closing at $66.02. In US Stocks, DJIA -42 points closing at 9665, S& P -6 points closing at 1044 and NASDAQ -16 points closing at 2090.
The Euro (EUR) managed to eek out small gains after once again coming under pressure from risk aversion. EUR/GBP continued to push higher up above 0.9200. EUR/JPY was not immune to the USD/JPY moves dropping back to 132 supports. EU M3 Money Supply at 2.5% in August was on the low end of expectations and concerning as it indicates new loans showed little growth. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4616 and a high of 1.4725 before closing at 1.4680. Looking ahead, ECB Trichet speaks.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke 90 finally as the market pushed through the Key level. There was little follow through but the pair did finish below the big figure and this could lead to big moves on Monday with Japanese investors. GBP/JPY led the market on the way down over 3 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.50 and a high of 91.50 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) broke through the 1.6000 level as the market continued to react to BOE King's message that a weak sterling is good for the UK's recovery. All the crosses were very weak with GBP/AUD breaking fresh lows under 1.8500. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5920 and a high of 1.6050 before closing the day at 1.5980 in the New York session. UPDATE UK SEPTEMBER HOUSE PRICES +0.2%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded inline with the EURO losing then bouncing out of the low 0.8600 area to finish well supported against the greenback. The Aussie is still very sensitive to risk appetite and continued falls in stocks will weigh as will any correction in Oil or Gold. AUD/NZD continues to flirt with the 1.200 level but is holding above for now. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8615 and a high of 0.8715 before closing the US session at 0.8670.
Gold (XAU) held under $1000 and did not trade above the Key level in a day that will get the bulls nervous. Overall trading with a low of USD$985 and high of USD$999 before ending the New York session at USD$991 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4467 |
1.4516 |
1.4590 |
1.4844 |
1.4866 |
|
USD/JPY |
87.99 |
88.60 |
89.15 |
91.63 |
92.50 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5450 |
1.5779 |
1.5800 |
1.6207 |
1.6468 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8529 |
0.8591 |
0.8600 |
0.8789 |
0.8814 |
|
XAU/USD |
982.00 |
985.00 |
991.00 |
1020.00 |
1024.00 |
Euro – 1.4590
Initial support at 1.4516 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4844 (Sept 23 high) followed by 1.4866 (September 22 2008 high)
Yen – 89.15
Initial support is located at 88.60 (Feb 3 low) followed by 87.99 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sept 24 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).
Pound – 1.5800
Initial support at 1.5779 (May 26 low) followed by 1.5450 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6207 (23.6% retrace 1.3503-1.7043) followed by 1.6450 (May 20 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8600
Initial support at 0.8591 (Sept 21 low) followed by the 0.8529 (Sept 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8789 (Sept 23 high) followed by 0.8814 (Aug 22 '08 high).
Gold – 991
Initial support at 985 (Sept 25 low) followed by 9982 (Sept 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 1020 (Sept 22 high) followed by 1024 (September 17 high).
