Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 17/06/2009

BRIC meeting Hurts Dollar 

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 17th June (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong in Asia as the Nikkei slumped from the opening following the negative lead from America. In Europe, talk that Russia would be discussing the USD at the BRIC meeting sent the Euro bouncing and it was not until weakness in US stocks that the USD could recover. US Housing data was strong with May Housing starts at 0.532M vs. 0.49M forecast. Oil traded above $72 a barrel briefly before easing into the close. Crude Oil closes down $0.15 to close the day at 70.47. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 20 points or -1.11% and the Dow Jones was down 107 points or -1.25%. Looking ahead, May CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously. Q1 Current Account forecast at -85Bn vs. -132Bn previously.

The Euro (EUR) Bounced above 1.3800 on BRIC Dollar concerns before extending gains on the back of better than expected German Zew Survey. June Zew Current conditions Survey jumped to -89.7 vs. -92.8 previously. Weak US stocks and EUR/JPY selling pull the pair lower later in the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3755 and a high of 1.3934 before closing at 1.3840. Looking ahead, April trade Balance forecast at -1.3Bn vs. 0.4Bn previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was bought aggressively in Asia with USD/JPY breaking through 97 Yen and slipping to 96 before recovering with the crosses. Weak stocks and improving economic conditions in Japan the main catalyst. The BOJ upgraded its view of the Japanese economy after its BOJ meeting yesterday. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.06 and a high of 97.74 before closing the day around 96.45 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) found support at 1.6200 after heavy GBP/JPY out of Asia put the Pound of the back foot. CPI in May at 0.6% was much more than expected and helped the GBP to climb back above 1.6400 to test 1.6500 briefly in the European session. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6207 and a high of 1.6510 before closing the day at 1.6400 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallies aggressively in Europe from 0.7900 to 0.8050 tracking the bounce in the Euro and Oil. Tokyo traders were taking large profits from the recent AUD/JPY rally to 80 Yen. RBA minutes showed that future rate cuts are possible if the market turns down again. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7858 and a high of 0.8071 before closing the US session at 0.7940.

Gold (XAU) bounced a little with the market trying to find support around the $930 area. Overall trading with a low of USD$928 and high of USD$940 before ending the New York session at USD$934 an ounce.

Euro – 1.3840

Initial support at 1.3728 (May 21 low) followed by 1.3584 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4033 (Jun 15 high) followed by 1.4178 (Jun 11 high)

Yen – 96.40

Initial support is located at 95.33 (Jun 5 low) followed by 96.52 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.89 (May 7 high) followed by 98.89 (Jun 5 high).

Pound – 1.6405

Initial support at 1.6041 (Nov 6) followed by 1.5986 (Jun 9). Initial resistance is now at 1.6662 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1.6739 (61.8% retrace).

Australian Dollar – 0.7940

Initial support at 0.7828 (Jun 8 low) followed by the 0.7745 (May 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8108 (Jun 15 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).

Gold – 935

Initial support at 925 (May 20 low) followed by 916 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 965 (Jun 5 high) followed by 983 (June 3 high).

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