Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 13/05/2009

USD resumes Weakening

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th May (00:30GMT)

·                U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) felt more pressure as traders tested the dollars downside once again. A small rise in US stocks and better than expected US trade data prompted more risk taking. March Trade Balance at -27.5Bn vs. -29Bn forecast. Crude Oil was up $1.30 ending the New York session at $59.57 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 15 points or -0.88% and the Dow Jones was up 50 points or 0.60%. Looking ahead, April Retail Sales forecast at 0.0% vs. -1.2% previously.

·                The Euro (EUR) jumped another notch higher, testing the 1.3700 level before easing slightly. German CPI was as expected 0.7% y/y in April. Further gains in the Euro can not be ruled out as the improved confidence in world markets extends the equity rebound. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3563 and a high of 1.3709 before closing at 1.3650. Looking ahead, March Industrial Production forecast at -1% vs. -2.3% previously.

·                The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unable to turn positive sentiment into USD/JPY gains as the pair continued to slip towards the 95 Yen level. Other movements on the crosses were muted by the majors. Critical Support at 95 could be tested in the coming week. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.98 and a high of 97.86 before closing the day around 96.20 in the New York session. March Current Account at -48.8 vs. -58.4%.

  ·              The Sterling (GBP) surged off the 1.5100 level in Early Europe as UK economic data surged the pair to 1.5300. Manufacturing Production dropped -0.1% vs. -0.8% forecast. UK Trade Balance at -6.6Bn vs. -7.2Bn forecast. Finally Industrial Production at -0.6% vs. -0.7% forecast. All these combined to reignite the Pound Rally. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5072 and a high of 1.5356 before closing the day at 1.5290 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Quarterly Inflation Report.

·                The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied back towards 0.7700 as commodities surged led by Oil. The Federal Budget released yesterday had little impact on the Aussie as the most had being leaked. A record deficit though does not help the longer term outlook. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7560 and a high of 0.7700 before closing the US session at 0.7660.

·              Gold (XAU) gained on the back of the fresh USD weakness. Continued strength in Oil is underpinning the gains.   Overall trading with a low of USD$911 and high of USD$929 before ending the New York session at USD$924 an ounce.

·                Euro – 1.3685

Initial support at 1.3343 (May 8 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3739 (March 19 high) followed by 1.3799 (Jan 8   high)

·                Yen – 96.20

Initial support is located at 96.12 (May 12 low) followed by 95.63 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.82 (May 11 high) followed by 99.75 (Apr 17 high).

·                Pound – 1.5300

Initial support at 1.4944 (May 7 low) followed by 1.4836 (May 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5373 (Jan 8 high) followed by 1.5477 (38.2% retrace 1.3503-1.8669).

·                Australian Dollar – 0.7685

Initial support at 0.7459 (May 7 low) followed by the 0.7337 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7738 (Oct 6 high) followed by 0.8097 (Sept 30 high).

·                Gold – 925

Initial support at 895 (May 6 low) followed by 878 (Apr 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 933 (Apr 1 high) followed by 945 (Mar 26 high).

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