Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 07/05/2009

Leaked Bank Stress Tests fuel Rally

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 7th May (00:30GMT)

·                U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) struggled as US employment numbers beat expectations and leaked stress test results helped confidence. ADP Employment Report for April came in at -491K vs. -650K forecast. US stocks rallied on improved confidence and commodity surge. Crude Oil was up $2.50 ending the New York session at $56.47 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 5 points or 0.28% and the Dow Jones was up 101 points or 1.21%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 635K vs. 631K previously.

·                The Euro (EUR) kept to a tight range as investors were reluctant to follow other currencies higher given the ECB meeting today. Whilst expectations are for a 0.25% cut to 1.0% and the possibility of some form of Quantitative Easing the feeling with most traders is that aggressive action is unlikely. EU Retail Sales (March) fell -0.6% vs. 0.1% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3245 and a high of 1.3376 before closing at 1.3330. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement forecast 0.25% rate cut followed by news conference with President Trichet.

·                The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened with Japan away for the third and final day USD/JPY slipped towards 98 Yen. Crosses managed to remain fairly stable as their respective majors rallied on good sentiment. The BOJ Minutes tomorrow and the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday the major event risk. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.09 and a high of 99.09 before closing the day around 98.40 in the New York session.

  ·              The Sterling (GBP) continued its march higher with UK data and Stocks propelling cable to new multi-month highs. EUR/GBP has dropped down to support at 88 as the Euro was sluggish overnight. UK PMI services (Apr) rose to 48.7 vs. 45.5 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4990 and a high of 1.5155 before closing the day at 1.5130 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate announcement widely expected to remain at 0.5%.

·                The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested the 0.7500 level on good momentum to the topside. The pair found some resistance but the pullback was shallow as surging commodities helped underpin the move higher. Resistance above 0.7500 is sparce so the pair could quickly move to more noted retracement levels at 0.7700. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7335 and a high of 0.7505 before closing the US session at 0.7480. Looking ahead, April Unemployment is forecast at 5.9% vs. 5.7% previously. April Employment Change is forecast at -25K vs. -34K previously.

·              Gold (XAU) gained on USD weakness although movement is being capped by slipping safe haven demand for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$895 and high of USD$912 before ending the New York session at USD$911 an ounce.

·                Euro – 1.3305

Initial support at 1.3121 (Apr 29 low) followed by 1.2964 (Apr 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3438 (May 5 High) at followed by 1.3582 (Apr 6 high)

·                Yen – 98.45

Initial support is located at 97.15 (Apr 30 low) followed by 96.39 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).

·                Pound – 1.5105

Initial support at 1.4836 (May 4 low) followed by 1.4704 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5162 (May 5 high) followed by 1.5373 (Jan 8 high).

·                Australian Dollar – 0.7460

Initial support at 0.7300 (May 4 low) followed by the 0.7233 (Apr 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7479 (May 5 high) followed by 0.7560 (61.8% retrace 0.6009 to 0.8519).

·                Gold – 910

Initial support at 878 (Apr 21 low) followed by 864 (Apr 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 918 (Apr 27 high) followed by 933 (Apr 1 high).

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